Each year at this time, The Herman Group issues its annual forecast.
This year, once more, we offer you our full forecast for the coming
1. Certain Skill Sets Continue to be in Short Supply.
In spite of the global economic slowdown and massive layoffs, certain
skill sets are in short supply. All but the most short-sighted
employers will continue to respect talented workers in all fields for
2. Some Employers Will Make Serious Mistakes, Threatening Their Very Survival.
Wise employers will look for non-financial ways to add value for their
top talent; while other employers, thinking short-term, will look at
the salaries they are paying this talent and choose to keep only the
lowest-paid employees. In some cases, these mistakes will prove fatal,
for without effective human capital to make the products or serve the
customers, these organizations will not be able to stay in business.
3. Fear and Apprehension Reduce Productivity.
As we wrote about some months ago, there is a significant percentage of
employees who are worried about the future. Unless addressed, this fear
will reduce productivity and employee morale. Wise employers will show
their appreciation for their workers and reignite passion and
excitement with activities and contests that challenge employees to
achieve high performance levels.
4. Increasing Insurance Costs Motivate Employers to Invest More in Wellness.
As we previously forecast, in an effort to reduce costs, more large
employers will turn to programs that reward employees for healthy
behaviors (e.g., stopping smoking and reducing weight) and penalize
those who continue to engage in unhealthy ones. More behaviors will
join the list, including incentivizing regular exercise and making
workers pay for eating fast food.
5. Retention in the Face of Increasing Anxiety.
As in any economic slowdown, employee turnover will slow down. With
anxiety building, more employees will be doing what we call "corporate
cocooning," staying in the warmth and security of their corporate
cocoons. When employment markets increase choices again, we will see
more attrition, especially from the ranks of long-term employees. Wise
employers will conduct "stay interviews" and provide re-orientation to
their seasoned employees.
6. More Attention to Succession Planning and Management.
Around the globe, we are seeing a growing attention to succession
planning and management. (Joyce will speak on this important topic in
March at the HRD Congress in Malaysia.) The problem is that most
succession planning fails to recognize the critical importance of
succession preparation. Whether companies are right-sizing, expanding,
or just in a "holding pattern," succession management will be critical
to long-term success.
7. Wise Companies Will Use This Time Well to Build Bench Strength.
Enlightened organizations will understand the training opportunity
presented by this business slowdown and send their people for more
training this year. When companies skip the leadership training and
engage in "appointment by anointment," their supervisors, managers and
executives are simply not ready to move into the positions. Leaders’
lack of competence will be seen in increased employee turnover.
8. More "Home Sourcing” to Maintain Control and Reduce Expenses.
Some companies have already begun to bring certain functions back into
the organization. We call that trend "Home Sourcing." Excluding payroll
and Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), every outsourced function is
considered fair game.
9. Employers Will Find Low-Cost Ways to Add Value.
In an effort to keep their workers engaged and happy, wise employers
will look for ways to add value without costing a lot. They will
embrace ideas like collecting used DVDs and videos for a lending
library and scheduling Lunch ‘n Learns with free speakers.
10. Older Workers Will Be Particularly Valued This Year.
To get the work done without resorting to hiring expensive contract
help, some employers will begin mining the rolls of their retired
workers and hiring them back on a part-time basis. These seasoned
professionals have a lot to offer their former employers. The companies
will probably need to conduct less training and most certainly will
have a more reliable workforce than recruiting Millennials.
Herman Trend Alerts are written by Joyce Gioia-Herman, a strategic
business futurist, Certified Management Consultant, author, and
professional speaker. To learn more, go to http://www.hermangroup.com.