the consumption of finished lubricants is projected to be essentially
flat between 2008 and 2013, consumption of lubricant additives will
grow at a rate of 0.7 percent per year, according to the latest
research from worldwide consulting and research firm Kline & Co.
The key change driver of the lubricants industry will be the
development of new quality levels for passenger car motor oils (PCMO)
and heavy duty motor oils. The drivers for these quality upgrades are
compatibility with emission control, use of bio-fuels, use of ultra low
sulfur diesel, focus on improving fuel economy in PCMO and increasing
the life of the engine oil.
"Despite the economic recession, consumption of lubricant additives
will show moderate overall growth," said Milind Phadke, project manager
at Kline’s Energy research practice. "Some function classes like
dispersants, antioxidants, friction modifiers and viscosity index
improvers are growth opportunities due to the increased focus on engine
oil longevity, the need for greater oxidation inhibition, the use of
biofuels, and the increased use of multigrades."
Volumetric data from Kline & Co.’s report “Global Lubricant
Additives 2008: Market Analysis and Opportunities” shows that
improvement in performance levels in advanced economies and improved
treat rates in cost-competitive markets drives a relatively strong
growth in lubricant additives. Some functional classes like
antioxidants (growing at 2.6 percent), dispersants (growing at 1.2
percent) and friction modifiers (growing at 1.1 percent) are projected
to experience even stronger growth than the overall additives growth
Kline’s report estimates the global consumption of lubricant additives
at 4,130 kilotonnes in 2008, and this includes consumption of both
active additive components as well as diluent oil. Overall consumption
in the most likely scenario is projected to grow at 0.7 percent per
year, reaching 4,285 kilotonnes by 2013.